Somali Civil War (2006-present)

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Somali Civil War (2006 period)
Date May 7, 2006–ongoing Location Somalia Result ongoing
Combatants
Islamic Courts Union Pro-Islamist Militias Alleged: Eritrea Foreign Jihadists	Various Warlords Transitional Federal Government Puntland Ethiopia
Commanders
Muhammad Ibraheem Bilal Hasan Hersi "Turki" Yusuf Siad "Inda-Addeh" Mukhtar Robow	Barre Adan Shire "Hirale" (Jubaland), Abdi Qeybdid, Adde Musa (Puntland)
Strength
10,000 - 30,000 soldiers 500 - 2000 technicals Heavy weapons including artillery, GTA and GTG missiles Alleged Forces: 2,000 Eritrean soldiers[1] ~1,000 Foreign Jihadists	2,000 - 5,000 clan militia 300 - 500 technicals 500 - 15,000 Ethiopian infantry (Ethiopia claims the low figure, ICU the high figure. A UN report[1] placed their numbers at ~7,000) Ethiopian heavy weapons, including artillery, GTG, GTA missiles. Unknown number of Ethiopian tank forces.
Casualties
21 reported	32 reported

Somali Civil War
Phases Civil War (1988–92) – UN intervention (1992–93) – Civil War (1993–2006) – Civil War (2006) – Ethiopian intervention (2006–present) Engagements Provide Relief – Deliverance – 1st Mogadishu – 2nd Mogadishu

The 2006-present period of the Somali Civil War is the latest period in the Somali Civil War and has been marked by a swift rise of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). It began in May 2006 with the Courts' conquest of Mogadishu. As of December 8, 2006, direct Ethiopian involvement in the conflict is reported by the ICU.

Contents 1 Origins 2 Course of the conflict 2.1 Ethiopian involvement 3 Timeline 3.1 June 4, 2006 3.2 June 6, 2006 3.3 June 14, 2006 3.4 August 1, 2006 3.5 August 10, 2006 3.6 August 16, 2006 3.7 September 24, 2006 3.8 September 30, 2006 3.9 October 10, 2006 3.10 October 26, 2006 3.11 November 1, 2006 3.12 November 26, 2006 3.13 December 2, 2006 4 References

[edit] Origins

The rise of the Islamic Courts in Somalia began in the mid 1990s with the alliance of a group of Muslim legal scholars and business people led by Hassan Aweys (former leader of the AIAI) and Sharif Ahmed, with two other powerful elements: Yusuf Mohammed Siad "Indha'adde" the self-declared governor of Shabeellaha Hoose, and the militant Islamist group al-Itihaad al-Islamiya led by Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki, forming the Islamic Courts Union. This combination of brains, money and fighting power has proven to be very powerful.

Initially these three distinct elements maintained separate leadership, but after the Union of Islamic Courts and the AIAI merged to form the Supreme Islamic Courts Council in July, and Indha'adde's voluntary annexation of his warlordship to the SICC at the end of September, their opponents now face a unified organization.

[edit] Course of the conflict

Until September, the conflict was limited to the Benadir region, and pitted petty warlord and pirate fiefdoms in a one-sided battle against the Islamic Courts, often with the local populace supporting the Islamists.

The ICU's capture of Kismayo brought them into an irresolvable conflict with the newly declared Jubaland and the Juba Valley Alliance forces. The JVA withdrew in the face of an overwhelming ICU army in the hopes that, when returning in full force, the JVA would be strong enough to retake Kismayo. In the ensuing battles outside of Bu'alle and Kismayo however, the JVA proved to be no match for the ICU, who defeated them easily. JVA forces began to crumble by November, as JVA militias began defecting to the ICU. By November 14, entire Marehan subclans began defecting to the ICU, setting up courts in Bardhere and Afmadow.

Puntland entered the conflict on November 12, attacking ICU positions south of Galkacayo. This led to immediate setbacks for Puntland as they lost several important pieces of military hardware including two tanks and many technicals. Puntland stepped up their deployment to the border significantly.

Southwestern Somalia and their military forces, the Rahanweyn Resistance Army, sat out the conflict entirely other than deploying several hundred troops in Baidoa to defend the city until December 1st. On December 1st 350 RRA soldiers defected to the ICU, along with the entire district of Dinsoor. A division of pro-Government RRA soldiers may still be deployed in support of the government at Baidoa, but this is unclear, as the overall RRA commander has opposed the government rather openly since the end of October. The RRA has a longstanding "wait and see" policy when it comes to involvement outside Rahanweyn clan territory, so alignment towards the ICU may tip the scales dramatically in favor of the ICU.

Though the ICU has been somewhat bellicose towards Somaliland, due to their alleged ill treatment of a respected Jihadist religious leader in Somaliland, and Somaliland has been quite hostile to the ICU whom they term "false prophets", Somaliland took no direct role in the conflict. Somaliland is traditionally the heartland of the AIAI, and support is quite high for the ICU in Somaliland territory, and conflict may occur in the future.

[edit] Ethiopian involvement

Main article: Ethiopian involvement in the 2006 Somali Civil War

Ethiopian troops moved into Somalian territory on July 20, 2006^{[citation needed]}.

Somalia's interim government is currently resisting militant advances by the Islamic Courts Union forces north to the last unoccupied city of Baidoa. The fighting intensified into direct confrontations on December 8th as ICU and Ethiopian troops backed by government forces clashed in Dinsoor and near Galkayo.

Both the Transitional Government and the Islamic Courts Union had taken great pains to avoid direct confrontation between ICU and TNG forces, preferring until December 8th to attack proxy and allied forces.

The ICU invasion of Hiran, Southwestern Somalia and Jubaland technically did not violate the ceasefire as those forces had not submitted territorial control to the government, despite ruling the territories in their name, and the TNG invasion of Burhakaba attacked tribal militias allied to the ICU, but was at that point not ICU territory. This mutual following of the letter of the peace agreement, while ignoring the spirit of the peace agreement, has increased tension to a fever pitch, though both sides feel unwilling to fire the first shot and be seen as the aggressor.

Differing interpretations of the peace agreement have led to a tense situation, as the opponents view their adversaries as not being committed to negotiation.

[edit] Timeline

[edit] June 4, 2006

The Courts and an alliance of Mogadishu warlords (the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism) had fought sporadically for years in minor turf battles over Mogadishu districts, but by March 2006 this had escalated to a decisive street war, the Second Battle of Mogadishu.

The Baidoa government's prime minister, Mohammed Gedi, demanded that the warlords cease fighting the ICU, but this command was universally ignored and so Gedi dismissed them from Parliament^[2].

The battles for each of Mogadishu's districts were bloody and vicious and caused significant collateral damage, with hundreds killed or wounded in the crossfire. As the months crawled by however, the Islamic Courts began to gain the upper hand.

By 4 June the ICU had taken Balcad^[3] and seized the primary ARPCT base in Mogadishu^[4]. The ICU was poised on the brink of victory.

[edit] June 6, 2006

By 6 June the warlords who had banded together to resist the Courts either retreated to Ethiopia or surrendered to the Islamic Courts, making the ICU the new masters of Mogadishu^[5] and its important port^[6].

The Islamic Courts had imposed strict law and order over the parts of Mogadishu they controlled during the battles, and with their final victory law and order was declared to have returned to Mogadishu for the first time in 15 years. This accomplishment was applauded both internationally and domestically as a significant achievement, but worries and fears of the ICU's intentions began to appear both domestically and internationally.

[edit] June 14, 2006

The Islamic Courts, having consolidated Mogadishu entirely with the surrender of the last warlord of Mogadishu, moved out from Mogadishu northward in a rapid consolidation campaign to link up with allied courts in other cities, and to push out the remaining regional warlords who had opposed them in Mogadishu or supported the ARPCT.

Jowhar was the most important warlord stronghold outside of Mogadishu, ruled by Mohammed Dheere. After securing allies in the town, the ICU advanced on Jowhar in early June, forcing Mohammed Dheere to flee north to Ethiopia on 14 June^[7] and capturing the town.

The Ethiopian government made the decision to support these exiled warlords in order to oppose what in their view is a critical threat posed by the Islamic Courts to their administration of the Ogaden region^[8]. This was inevitable considering the political stripe of the ICU, but was spurred primarily by the ICU's expansion and troop deployment up to the Ethiopian Border. By mid June, Ethiopian troops are sent to the border, and Ethiopia begins pressuring the Transitional Government to allow them to deploy troops in Baidoa. Ethiopia begins vocally referring to the ICU as "al Qaeda allies" and "Terrorists".

In mid July, Ethiopian forces mass at the border with Beletweyne, warning the ICU not to move on the city. Ethiopian forces under the command of Captain Hassey Aliow cross the Somalian border into ICU territory for the first time, in order to meet with Baadi’ade and Ujejeen clan elders for intelligence gathering[1]. While they are there, a number of weapons are distributed to the local militia.

[edit] August 1, 2006

The ICU moved into the Mudug region in the beginning of August, capturing Adado on 1 August^[9] following negotiations with the local clan Sultan.

This draws the ICU into the sphere of influence of Puntland, as Adado borders the important southern city of Galcayo. Conflict ensues almost immediately after an Islamic Court is founded in south Galkayo (outside of Puntland but too close for comfort) and escalates rapidly up to the 9th of August.

[edit] August 10, 2006

Local leaders of South Galkayo chose to form their own regional state, bringing in the territory of Abdi Qebdid into Galmudug (Galgadud and Mudug) on the 14th of August in order to avoid annexation into Puntland or the ICU.

An Islamic Court had been founded in Beletweyne by the local Hawiye clans, however the leader of Hiranland, both due to the opposition of the Hawiye to his administration and due to government pressure to resist the founding of Islamic Courts in the territories of states aligned with them, entered into conflict with the Beletweyne court and the Hawiye. The ICU intervened and captured Beletweyne on the 10th of August.

In order to make good on their promise to restore law and order to Somalia, the ICU began invading the territory of coastal warlords known to be engaged in piracy. The most infamous pirates in Somalia operated out of Harardhere and Hobyo, and so these towns were targeted for the anti-piracy campaign.

Harardere, the most infamous Piracy port, was captured on the 13th of August.

[edit] August 16, 2006

Hobyo negotiated a surrender with the ICU on August 16^[10] where Hobyo would join Galmudug. Fighting quiets down in the north as Galmudug forms a buffer state between the ICU and Puntland, ending the violence between those two.

The Transitional Government in Baidoa steps up their pressure for African Union peacekeepers to be deployed in the country to prevent the ICU from capturing any more territory, and the primary anti-ICU nations (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda) pull together troops and funds to deploy a force in Kismayo.

The ICU simultaneously begins advancing on Kismayo. As both sides technically are supposed to have a peace treaty, neither side admits that this is an escalation of hostilities, and downplay the whole thing.

[edit] September 24, 2006

In order to prevent the deployment of thousands of AU troops in the country, the Courts invaded Jubaland and seized Kismayo, after Barre Hirale's Juba Valley Alliance withdrew from the town in the face of overwhelming opposition and the mutiny of several JVA factions to the ICU^[11].

Relations with the Transitional Government collapsed. Ethiopia deployed hundreds of troops in Baidoa, and those numbers would continue to increase into thousands. The capture of Kismayo soured relations with both Somaliland and Puntland, as Jubaland was recognized as a political entity in many Somali circles, as opposed to the warlords who were universally viewed as being illegitimate.

The Juba Valley Alliance vowed to retake Kismayo, and regrouped their forces in Bu'ale.

Later, on 29 September, the ICU declared their intention to unify and centralize their military forces under a single command.

[edit] September 30, 2006

Minor skirmishes in the north with Ethiopian troops near the border aggravate the situation further^[12].

Indha-adde, the ICU-allied warlord ruler of Lower Shabelle, agrees to surrender his militias and territories to the ICU voluntarily, and in return is granted a senior position in the ICU leadership as head of ICU security. This was largely an extension of the declaration the day before of creating a single military command for the ICU as a whole, and put an end to the decentralized militias.^{[citation needed]}

The chairman of the ICU's Shura council, Shiekh Aweys, offered the Transitional Government to come to Mogadishu and rule the country if they accepted Sharia law.

A video depicting an important religious leader in Somaliland, Sheikh Ismail, being tortured in prison by Somaliland authorities finds its way into the Somali media. The ICU declares their intention to free him if Somaliland does not.

An attempt was made by the ICU and JVA forces to agree to a ceasefire, but Ethiopian reinforcements emboldened JVA forces sufficiently to continue the fighting. Despite this, the JVA loses Afmadow to the ICU on October 5.

Anti-ICU protests in Kismayo led to several deaths and a curfew being imposed on the city. These protests were sparked by the decision by local ICU authorities to ban Khat use in Kismayo.

[edit] October 10, 2006

The local Islamic Sharia court react to an Ethiopian cross-border expedition as a precursor to the Ethiopian invasion the ICU had been fearing for months, and calls for emergency reinforcements from Mogadishu and Jihad against Ethiopia are made.

Ethiopian forces had been massed over the other side of the border from Beletweyne since mid July[2], and the tension was palpable. Within weeks, thousands of soldiers would be staring over the border at each other and fingering their triggers.

The ICU captures Bu'alle and Badhadhe from the JVA on 15 October, pushing the JVA out of Lower Juba entirely. Barre Hirale attempted a final push to recapture Kismayo and Bu'alle through mid October, mustering all of his forces for a final battle near Kismayo where his forces were defeated, along with a simultaneous attempt to capture Bu'alle. Several of the Marehan subclans had opened their own negotiations with the ICU, and his position was weakening by the day.

The JVA regrouped their remaining forces in Sakow, though the alliance itself was unravelling.

[edit] October 26, 2006

The ICU is victorious in Sakow, capturing the town and pushing the JVA out of Middle Juba as well. The remains of JVA forces pull back to Bardhere in Gedo.

Transitional Government and Ethiopian troops seize Bur Hakaba briefly from ICU-allied militias, directly violating the Khartoum agreements. The ICU leadership consider the brief capture of Bur Hakaba as a violation of the peace agreement signed in Khartoum, and further talks, scheduled for the end of the month, seem less and less likely.

The fact that the government soldiers were supported by Ethiopian soldiers prompted the ICU leadership to declare a jihad against all Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia. The Beletweyne Sharia court had already issued a call for jihad earlier, but this made it official.

A televised address by Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, chairman of the Supreme Council and the most moderate and respected of the ICU leadership, wearing a military style outfit and holding an AK-47, broke the news of Jihad to Somalia. In a much more low profile move Hassan Aweys, the Shura Council chairman, took it a step further and called for all Ethiopians, Muslim or otherwise, to rise up and overthrow the "oppresive regime of Meles Zenawi"[3].

[edit] November 1, 2006

ICU forces assume control over Hobyo, which is the capital of the de-jure autonamous South Mudug State.

Religious leaders in the northern half of the Puntland city of Galkacyo set up an Islamic Court, which the government of Puntland vows to dismantle or destroy, creating a tense situation as ICU forces deploy in South Mudug State controlled South Galkacyo to protect the new Islamic Court.

Heavy fighting broke out in central Somalia on November 12th, officials said, a day after the transitional government rejected a peace initiative with the country's Islamic movement.

Islamic militia captured the town of Bandiiradley (possessing an airport and an important Puntland military base protecting Gaalkacyo) after claiming they came under attack from pro-government militia backed by Ethiopian troops near the border of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, one of the few areas still outside their control. Neither side would comment on casualties or the sizes of forces involved. However Agaweyne said they had captured two tanks and 11 pickup trucks mounted with machine guns, known locally as "technicals."^[13]

Barre Hiraale returns to Baidoa, as several branches of his Marehan clan set up Islamic courts in Bardhere and Afmadow and declare their support for the Islamic Courts. As Islamist support north of Bardhere is very strong, and Bardhere was previously the last bastion of anti-ICU sentiment in Gedo, the Gedo region is poised to fall into the hands of the Islamic Courts^[14].

Baidoa's military buildup continues to be plagued by division, as 30 more government soldiers along with their technicals defected to the Islamic Courts[4].

The ICU enacts into law the Prohibition of Khat in all territories they control on 17 November 2006, due to the concerns of many ICU leaders as to the social effects of Khat use, and in response to violent protests by Khat vendors in Mogadishu that lead to the death of a 13 year old boy. This decision may prove to be counterproductive to the ICU's agenda of restoring law and order, as prohibition laws historically trend towards increased rather than decreased criminality.

Puntland's president, Adde Musa, signed a deal with the Islamic Court of Galkayo in order to stem the tide of violence that the town had experienced for over a week^[15]. The details of this deal include the establishment of Sharia as the legal code, and holding a "grand conference" in Garowe to discuss the future of Puntland. Puntland has much to gain from switching sides over to the Islamic Courts, as Puntland is in a longstanding dispute with Somaliland over the Sool and Sanaaq regions, and the Islamic Courts have a dispute with Somaliland over the inprisonment of an important religious leader.

[edit] November 26, 2006

Armed with over 30 "technicals", gunmen allied with the Islamic Courts have been reported to have taken full control over the town of Abudwaq, in western Galgadud region bordering Ethiopia^[16].

Ethiopian forces who were based in the administrative division of which Abudwaq is the seat, appeared to have pulled back across the border and massed their forces for a possible counterattack. ICU forces along the Ethiopian border were also reported to be massing. Were the Ethiopians to invade, it would most likely bring the conflict into Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia's border is extremely porous and there are a variety of rebel groups who would love to cooperate with ICU forces.

The situation in Baidoa became increasingly tense as a suicide car bomb attack in the city killed at least 8 people, involving at least 2 cars filled with explosives. The Transitional Government and Ethiopia immediately blamed the ICU for the attack, though no one assumed responsibility for the attack. The attack took place at a road checkpoint, and the attacker was apparently a veiled woman.

Ogaden Online reported that the Ethiopian government itself masterminded the attack^[17], citing an investigation by their reporters, who first reported on the plotting in November. It should be noted that Ogaden Online is not considered an unbiased source.

Matters escalate further as an Ethiopian convoy is ambushed by pro-ICU forces near Baidoa[5], the day after Ethiopian forces fired missiles at Bandiradley.

[edit] December 2, 2006

350 soldiers from the Digil and Mirifle clans defect to the ICU^[18], and Dinsoor, a primarily Digil and Mirifle district under Southwestern Somalian administration, defects to the ICU as well^[19]. The Digil and Mirifle are a major clan in Somalia, with large populations throughout Bay and Bakool regions, and the shift in support weakens the government position considerably.

The Digil and Mirifle clans make up the broader Rahanweyn group of clans, and the leader of the Rahanweyn Resistance Army, Aden Saran-Sor, has been accused of opposing the government since October 31^[20]. If Aden Saran-Sor has joined the ICU, then the RRA and the Rahanweyn clan as a whole will be divided between ICU supporters and government supporters, with the critical military support being on the ICU side. The government's base in Baidoa is hosted by Rahanweyn-controlled Southwestern Somalia, and if Southwestern Somalia falls to the ICU, Baidoa will be entirely encircled, and local resistance to the capture of Baidoa would be muted if the locals support the ICU.

On December 3rd, 60 ICU soldiers along with their technicals surrendered to government forces in Baidoa, dissatisfied by the ICU's extremist policies[6].

On December 6th, the United Nations Security Council approved a deployment of IGAD peacekeepers exempt from the UN arms embargo to protect Baidoa, effectively taking sides in the conflict. Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti were barred from taking part in the peacekeeping operation, leaving it up to Uganda, Tanzania and ironically, Eritrea. The resolution is primarily aimed at encouraging Uganda to deploy troops to protect Baidoa, which is a highly controversial issue in Uganda due to the UN arms embargo and the threats of the ICU to fight any peacekeepers in Somalia[7].

On December 8th, the ICU reported heavy fighting with government forces, backed by Ethiopian troops in the town of Dinsoor, in what many fear would spark an invasion of the heavily-fortified city of Baidoa by the massed ICU forces stationed in Burhakaba.^[21] Residents in Baidoa began fleeing the city, in fear of the fighting spilling over into Baidoa.

The fighting carried over into the next day, with ferocious artillery duels reported across a front line roughly located at Rama'addey village.

To complicate the situation, Mohammed Dheere, the warlord of Jowhar who had been defeated almost 6 months previously and fled to Ethiopia, crossed the border into Hiraan with his rebuilt militia and more than 60 technicals.

Sharif Sheikh Ahmad ended months of speculation on the 10th by formally declaring the ICU's intention to capture Baidoa. By the 11th, fighting near Dinsoor had settled down to a stable front line at Safarnooles village. The calm of the 11th was more than likely the preparations for a combined assault from two directions on Baidoa; from Dinsoor and Burhakaba, and the TFG's preparations to attempt to repel it.

Reports indicate that the ICU began advancing towards Tyeeglow on December 11 2006, continuing the encirclement of Baidoa. From Tyeeglow the ICU has the ability to attack the northern supply routes to Baidoa with virtual impunity. To entirely encircle Baidoa, the ICU needs to capture Hudur, Luuk and Wajid, and these towns are all along the road from Tyeeglow.

The ICU's strategy became clear following the battles near Dinsoor, which clearly demonstrated that the ICU has sufficient firepower to force their way into Baidoa if they chose to. The ICU has chosen instead to cut off all support to the city and force it to surrender, while simultaneously taking control of the rest of Bay and Bakool.

[edit] References